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Volume and Open Interest: What They Actually Tell You

Futures give you a data point equity traders do not get: open interest. Volume tells you what happened today; open interest tells you how many positions are still standing. The pair together is the closest thing to a positioning read available for free.

The definitions

VolumeOpen interest
CountsContracts traded todayContracts currently open
ResetsEvery sessionNever — it accumulates
What it showsActivityCommitment
Rises whenAny trade, opening or closingA new buyer and a new seller both enter

The key mechanic: open interest only rises when a new long meets a new short. If an existing holder closes and someone else takes the other side, open interest falls or is unchanged — even though volume was recorded.

The four combinations

PriceOpen interestReadingStrength
UpUpNew money entering long — trend supportedStrong
UpDownShort covering — rally has no new buyersWeak
DownUpNew money entering short — decline supportedStrong
DownDownLong liquidation — selling is exhausted supplyWeak

The most misread cell is the second row. A rally on falling open interest is shorts being forced out, not buyers arriving. It ends when the shorts are done.

Three limits you need to know

1. Open interest is reported with a one-day lag

Exchanges publish open interest after the close for the previous session. You are always looking at yesterday's positioning. Intraday, only volume is real-time.

2. Roll weeks distort everything

During a roll, open interest drops in the front month and rises in the next. That is bookkeeping, not positioning. A 20% fall in front-month open interest in the last week before expiry is normal and means nothing.

3. It tells you nothing about direction, only participation

Open interest is symmetric — every long has a short. Rising open interest says both sides are committing, not which side is right.

Where to get the data

The COT report is the only free window into who holds the positions. It is three days stale when published, which makes it a context tool, not a signal.

Using it without overfitting

Volume confirms that a move had participation; open interest confirms whether that participation is new money or position closing. Beyond that, both are descriptive. Strategies built on "volume spike means reversal" or "open interest divergence predicts tops" have been tested extensively and do not hold up as standalone edges — the honest use is sizing confidence in a move you already have a reason to take.

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